Today started off well with a flawless execution, and then swiftly fell apart as I began to overtrade and make poor decisions over the rest of the morning. I stopped at 10:30, after turning a +75 day on 3 accounts into about -20 on each.
Open
The market opened with an immediate drop. 1m had pulled up and made a bearish gravestone bullish doji 7J, which should have tipped me off, but I didn’t give it enough thought. With 5m MACD already falling off, it was a pretty easy short, but since I missed it, I sat it out. 1m continued crashing until a short pullup to the 34 and immediately crashed with 7:00 JOLTS release, with no signal. I skipped these shorts.
Day
The day was ugly to say the least, but not in the worst way. It was mostly an unfinished V reversal, although I stopped early and will update this later with information about how the day finished.
There was a steep 5m and 15m crash from the open, a very easy bottom due to the news release, and then some choppiness on the way up. On the way up, the 3 min made a pullback off the 34 fake rejection, and then the rest was mostly sideways but churning up. The high was ~14965, but 1m made it to 14940 and then went through a 100 point pullback and several 50+ point pullbacks off the 14900 level as it tried to make it up but never sustained it.
Update: The move finished and then some. Day got past the 21 as I expected it would, and the run was monstrous if I left it alone on the original long, or played for the correct 5m dip below 0. Feeling dumb for not doing so, but this picture is as clear as it gets. Hopefully I play it correctly next time.
Trades
After the opening crash, and 7:00 JOLT release, 1m made a bullish 7J without a sig candle. I trusted my gut on this, and went long for the news reversal, which was correct. 5m MACD was -25 at the low, and I decided not to wait for the full reverse, and to take profit at the 21. This was another great decision.
But after this, my trading became terrible.
The important trades are circled here.
- Yellow circle: 1m 7J, though no sig candle, coupled with JOLT release crashing prior, provided a very easy guaranteed reversal.
- Red circle: After the pullback off 3m 34 and 5m 21, 1m made a really easy wave B setup which I missed. I just didn’t focus enough to take this one.
- Blue circle: After 1m began to crash off the 940 level, despite not having a great signal on 1m, 5m trickled down repeatedly and the market stalled out. But the circled area was actually a flawless 1m 34 reversal to a new low, which then offered a very clear 1m exit/long entry sig candle (bullish harami hammer doji 7J) as well. This long could be considered, but it is currently unknown if the full move finished.
Bad trades
The bad trades today came in typical fashion.
- I went long on the 1m 34 EMA after the Wave B, which was a good play. I didn’t expect the move to fail at 940, but should have exited when the 5m engulf came, due to the nature of this morning and 15/60 charts not being bullish enough.
- When I got shaken out by a short term 1m crash toward the 34, I re-entered 20 points higher after taking a ~15 point loss. This was another stupid decision, as I should sit it out if I fail to hold on the first time.
- When the market started failing, I was long and held onto it and let the profit disappear, despite being up about 45 points near the high. After this, I neglected the short setup on 1m, which let me take a bigger loss than needed since it easily blew through the lows of the 34 from earlier.
- After getting a great 1m candle at the low, the bullish harami hammer doji, I hesitated for a good 10 minutes before entering at a worse price.
- This began my overtrading, where I exited on the 1m 34 and reversed at a -8 loss, then realized it was pulling back up and reversed again, and then didn’t take profit as 1m crashed once more. I could have held on again but I exited this final trade at a loss and said enough for today.
Notes
Overall, this was a better day than some of last week. I’m being patient enough but just not executing well throughout the day. My approach can be more professional, but my setup to start the morning was decent. I will continue the same routine tomorrow and hopefully do better at limiting overtrading later in the morning.