Yellow circle: 1m opens down, without a great signal, then pulls back up for a wave. At this wave completion, 5m makes a bearish harami 7J along the 34, perfect place to enter short. Note that it pulled up with what looks like a significant 5m bullish engulfing candle, but 15m is not bottomed, so the trend continues shortly afterward.
Yellow box: After making new lows, 5m pulls up to the 21 and 1m makes an upwave, with some good bearish candles along the top. Note that this top takes a full 30 minutes to complete and then drop, with several new highs and tests made. Be very patient and trust that the 15m and 1H, which were very bearish, will carry on. 5m made a bullish harami at the low, which could have caused an exit, but at the 21, I should trust this setup. 9:15 AM features another 1m fake pullup, but this doesn’t test the highs.
Purple circle: After the downtrend is “over”, 5m finally pulls up for its daily upwave. Missing the upwave is fine, because there is no clear 5m bullish entry at the low. But at the 34, 5m makes its fake 34 rejection setup, and 1m comes down to the 34 and then explodes. This is a long to take.
Finally, after running up 100+ points, 1m makes some bearish signals, which are good, but the 5m makes a perfect bearish engulfing 7J and a bullish gravestone candle before it. I can short this, and the later run on the 1m (first downwave) sends it to a new high, which would be troubling. But 15m makes a perfect bearish gravestone 7J before it. This new high is very tricky, and it would likely force me out, but trusting the candles is important. The market sets up to continue dropping off the 15m 34 here, although the move doesn’t finish until Sunday. Shorting the 1m/5m on the first signal would produce about 50-60 points, and then the top would be tested. I’m not sure yet how to play this, because most likely I would look at the top break as my exit. It’s definitely tough.
